On 10th June 2025, the Lusaka Securities Exchange All Share Index (LASI) closed at 20,386.53, marking its 32nd all-time high this year and, more importantly, breaching the 20,000 mark for the first time in its history. This continues to signal what has become one of the strongest and most consistent bull runs in Zambia’s market history.

The Anatomy of a Historic Rally

This record-breaking rally traces back to 1st February 2022, when the LASI closed at 6,358.58, finally surpassing its 2015 peak and formally ending the pandemic-era market recovery from the market collapse that spanned 2019 to 2020. From that point, the index entered a definitive bull phase:

10,000 mark was broken in November 2023
15,000 mark passed in August 2024
20,000 mark crossed in June 2025

In just 3.25 years, the LASI has surged 220%, and from the end of 2021, the market is up 234.50%.

Market Breadth: More Than Just a Few Winners

Out of the 19 listed companies, 16 have gained in value since the end of 2021. Notably, 10 companies have more than doubled their share prices during this period, with the average gain standing at 109.21% — hallmark signs of a broad-based bull market.

Top Share Price Performers Since 2021:

Company% Change

CECZ +729%
Airtel +423%
BATZ +331%
Puma Energy +313%
ZANACO +191%

Market Capitalisation: Record Levels with Concentration Risks

The domestic market capitalisation (excluding Shoprite) has expanded from K32 billion to K106 billion, a +230% growth. However, this expansion has been heavily concentrated, with five companies accounting for 85% of the market gains:

CECZ: contributing 42.28%
ZCCM: contributing 13.42%
Zambia Sugar: contributing 11.50%
Airtel: contributing 10.65%
ZANACO: contributing 7.05%

This points to a concentration risk: though the market has grown, the bulk of the value remains concentrated in a few stocks. The top five stocks now make up 78% of market capitalisation, up from 73% in 2021. By comparison, the S&P 500, which itself faces concentration concerns, sees 20–30% of value in its top names.

2025 YTD: Another Blockbuster Year in the Making

Just halfway through the year, the LASI is up 32.03% year-to-date, tracking above the 42% annual average return during this 5-year rally. This suggests that 2025 may end as one of the best years of the bull run.

Again, market concentration shows its face: three companies account for 87.7% of the 2025 YTD gains:

CECZ +59% (YTD Gains) & contributing 48.1% of total market growth
ZCCM+54% (YTD Gains) & contributing 20.5%
Airtel+116% (YTD Gains) & contributing 19.1%

What’s Driving the Bull Market?

While the rally is headline-grabbing, it’s not speculative. Strong fundamentals and a positive macroeconomic backdrop underpin it:

Lower bond yields, which have dropped to pre-debt default levels, thanks to debt negotiations, positive re-ratings and fiscal consolidation, have made equities more attractive, reallocating capital to the stock market.
Many of the top-performing companies have posted strong earnings and paid consistent dividends throughout this period.
Zambia’s macro indicators are positive: inflation is falling, currency stability has returned, and economic growth is visible in official forecasts from the Bank of Zambia, the Ministry of Finance, and the IMF.
Stanbic’s PMI has been consistently in expansion territory this year (except for one month), further supporting the post-drought economic recovery thesis.

This "Goldilocks environment" — not too hot to overheat inflation, and not too cold to stall growth — has given Zambian equities the perfect climate to flourish by creating an environment where capital is now comfortable taking risks.

A Market Marching to Its Own Beat

Even during periods of global volatility, including the U.S. Fed’s aggressive rate hikes, the LASI has shown resilience and divergence, continuing upward while other emerging markets paused or corrected.

Conclusion: The Rally is Real, But Mind the Concentration

The Zambian stock market’s performance is not just a recovery story — it's a transformative multi-year expansion backed by fundamentals, supportive macro conditions, and improving investor sentiment. However, the increased concentration in a handful of stocks highlights the need for greater market depth and new listings to broaden the rally and reduce systemic risk.

20,000 is not just a number — it’s a symbol. A symbol of Zambia’s evolving capital markets, and a signal to both local and international investors that Zambia’s stock is still on the charge.

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